United States · 12-mo home value
$370,731
projected 12-month outlook
▲ rising
Low $362,033High $379,638
- 80% range
- $362,033 – $379,638
- Confidence
- 70% (moderate confidence)
United States housing dashboard
An honest, interval-based read on the U.S. housing market — every forecast shows its range and confidence, backed by a public track record of past accuracy. Start with the national picture below, then drill into a state or open the full interactive map.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.
State home-value forecast (predicted)
observed as of 2026-04-30Each state is shaded by its predicted next-12-month change in home value (the AI forecast, Zillow ZHVI basis) — green is rising, red is falling, gray means no forecast yet. Hover a state to see the predicted figure with its confidence alongside the observed trailing-12-month trend. No forecast is certain; each is shown with its confidence. Click a state to open its full outlook.
Hover a state
Predicted 12-mo home value:falling → risingno forecastHover for predicted (with confidence) + observed.
The current market assessment is:
The Zillow home value index is projected near $370,731 over 12 months (80% interval $362,033–$379,638, confidence 0.70), with the model expecting a softer trajectory into 2028–2029 as confidence decays.
An automated analyst read on the U.S. housing market — informational only, not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Read the full analyst note ↓
For sellers
- Months of supply has risen to 4.9 (tier 3, NAR), up 6.5% from 4.6 — inventory is loosening toward a more balanced market, so pricing power is easing.
- Existing home sales fell 2.0% to 3.98 million (tier 3, NAR), and the NAR median sale price slipped 1.7% to $429,100 — demand is cooling at the top of the funnel.
- The 12-month home value forecast is essentially flat at $370,731 (interval $362,033–$379,638, confidence 0.70) versus the current $368,198, so waiting for meaningful appreciation is not what the model expects.
Takeaway: seller leverage is fading; the market is drifting from tight toward balanced, and the model sees little price tailwind ahead.
For buyers
- The 30-year mortgage rate is 6.73% (Sep 2026), up from 6.25% a year ago — financing costs remain a headwind.
- Supply at 4.9 months and softening sales give buyers more selection and modest negotiating room than earlier in the cycle.
- The 12-month home value forecast is $370,731 (interval $362,033–$379,638, confidence 0.70), roughly flat versus today's $368,198, so urgency to buy ahead of price gains is limited by the model's read.
Takeaway: buyer leverage is improving at the margin — more inventory and a flat price forecast, though high mortgage rates still bite.
Market Pulse
Where United States is headed — a considered read from now out to 3 years, on a −100 (weakening) to +100 (strengthening) scale. A considered read, not a guarantee.
Now
−8
on −100 to +100
Balanced, tilting cooler
72% confidence
Supply has loosened to 4.9 months and existing sales are down 2.0%, while mortgage rates at 6.73% remain a headwind — pointing to a balanced-to-slightly-cooling now. The 12-month forecast is essentially flat versus current levels, keeping the near-term score just below zero, but the 24- and 36-month anchors show -2.8% and -15.1% appreciation, pulling forward scores lower. Uncertainty grows with horizon (bands widen and confidence drops from 0.70 to 0.43), so the multi-year negative read is a softer, wider-band view rather than a firm call.
- 012mo price forecastessentially flat vs $368,198 (confidence 0.70)
- −24–36mo forecastpoint estimates decline -2.8% to -15.1%, wide bands
- −Months of supply4.9 and rising = loosening toward balanced
- −Existing home sales3.98M, down 2.0% MoM
- −Mortgage rate6.73%, up from 6.25% yr ago; expected to stay above 6.5% through 2027
- +FHFA price index+1.1% (tier 1) — recorded appreciation still positive
- +Rent forecastgrinds higher, 1,930 → 1,989 at 12mo
- 0Data trustno divergence flags; sources broadly consistent
Our formula reads: +16· AI's considered score now: −8
The AI weighs everything; the formula is the cross-check. How this is calculated.
This is a considered read, not a guarantee. The score is plotted now and at 12, 24 and 36 months; confidence falls and the 36-month read is faded because uncertainty grows with the horizon. How this is calculated.
Price Trajectory
Home-value appreciation for United States — recent observed history, then the forecast out to +1 and +3 years. A projection, not a guarantee.
Observed — rising (YoY +)Observed — falling (YoY −)Forecast| 0% baseline · vertical line = now (observed | forecast)
+1yr forecast+0.7%
80% range: -1.7% to +3.1%
Confidence 70% · moderate confidence
+3yr forecast-15.1%
80% range: -22.0% to -7.5%
Confidence 45% · lower confidence — projects further out, so treat with extra caution
Observed bars are the trailing-12-month change in home value (green = rising, red = falling). The orange line is a forecast, not a guarantee — each point shows its confidence, and the +3yr projection is faded with a wider band because it is less certain than the +1yr. Every forecast carries an interval and confidence. How this is calculated.
The data behind this assessment
The map above shades each state by its predicted next-12-month home-value change (hover for the observed trailing trend and the forecast's confidence). The analyses below — the national outlook, key indicators, track record, and data-trust checks — are what feed the assessment. The forward-looking forecasts always carry an interval and confidence.
National outlook
U.S. home-value forecast over the next 12 months — always shown with its range and confidence.
Track record
Real out-of-sample accuracy from our published backtests — misses included.
- Avg. error (MAPE)
- 3.4%
- lower is better
- Interval coverage
- 0.96
- target ≈ 0.80 for an 80% band
Across 27 backtested metric/horizon combinations (6,192 evaluations).
Data trust
How much we trust each source. Each source is measured against recorded sales (FHFA, our Tier-1 anchor). We weight recorded transactions higher and flag any source that diverges.
- FHFA House Price IndexTier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded repeat-sales; our ground-truth anchor.
Ensemble weight 1.00
- County Recorder (recorded deeds)Tier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded county deeds; treated as ground truth alongside FHFA. Near-perfect agreement with the anchor (bias 0.0pt).
Ensemble weight 1.00
- Zillow ResearchTier 2 · modeled✓
Tracks the recorded index closely (bias −0.2pt) — trusted.
Ensemble weight 57.23
- Redfin Data CenterTier 2 · modeled⚠
Runs ~8% hot vs recorded sales at city/neighborhood level — flagged & down-weighted.
Ensemble weight 0.18
- National Assoc. of RealtorsTier 3 · listing / industry·
Industry source; limited public history available — not yet conclusive.
Ensemble weight 45.75
Flagged divergences
- redfin · Median sale price (city)bias +8.4% n=156
- redfin · Median sale price (neighborhood)bias +6.1% n=64
Verdicts are derived from measured bias versus the FHFA recorded repeat-sales index. This is a data-quality signal, not investment advice; all forecasts carry an interval and stated confidence.
Explore the map
A national choropleth shaded by predicted appreciation. Zoom from the nation to states and counties.
Prefer a spatial view? The full interactive map lets you hover any area for its range and confidence, and click through to states and counties. Areas not yet generated show in neutral gray.
Jump into a state
Open a state's outlook, indicators, and counties.
Looking for another state? Open the map and click any state. Most states aren't generated yet — opening one shows current indicators and lets members generate a forecast.
Current market indicators
Observed current data for the United States (plus macro rates) that feed the assessment above — distinct from the forecasts, which carry intervals and confidence.
Analyst note
daily · 9/20/2026The Zillow home value index is projected near $370,731 over 12 months (80% interval $362,033–$379,638, confidence 0.70), with the model expecting a softer trajectory into 2028–2029 as confidence decays.
For sellers
- Months of supply has risen to 4.9 (tier 3, NAR), up 6.5% from 4.6 — inventory is loosening toward a more balanced market, so pricing power is easing.
- Existing home sales fell 2.0% to 3.98 million (tier 3, NAR), and the NAR median sale price slipped 1.7% to $429,100 — demand is cooling at the top of the funnel.
- The 12-month home value forecast is essentially flat at $370,731 (interval $362,033–$379,638, confidence 0.70) versus the current $368,198, so waiting for meaningful appreciation is not what the model expects.
Takeaway: seller leverage is fading; the market is drifting from tight toward balanced, and the model sees little price tailwind ahead.
For buyers
- The 30-year mortgage rate is 6.73% (Sep 2026), up from 6.25% a year ago — financing costs remain a headwind.
- Supply at 4.9 months and softening sales give buyers more selection and modest negotiating room than earlier in the cycle.
- The 12-month home value forecast is $370,731 (interval $362,033–$379,638, confidence 0.70), roughly flat versus today's $368,198, so urgency to buy ahead of price gains is limited by the model's read.
Takeaway: buyer leverage is improving at the margin — more inventory and a flat price forecast, though high mortgage rates still bite.
Outlook
The model projects the Zillow home value index near $370,731 at 12 months (80% interval $362,033–$379,638, confidence 0.70), essentially flat versus the current $368,198. Longer horizons soften: $357,952 at 24 months (interval $334,327–$383,247, confidence 0.56) and $312,654 at 36 months (interval $287,084–$340,501, confidence 0.45). Rent is projected to grind higher, from 1,930 today to 1,989 at 12 months (interval 1,950–2,028, confidence 0.71) and 2,410 at 36 months (interval 2,069–2,808, confidence 0.45). Uncertainty widens materially past 24 months, so the multi-year decline is a lower-confidence, wider-band read rather than a firm call.
Recent trend
The FHFA home price index (tier 1) rose 1.1% to 719.87 in April 2026, while Zillow's ZHVI (tier 2) was essentially flat at $368,198. NAR's median sale price (tier 3) fell 1.7% to $429,100 in August, existing sales dropped 2.0% to 3.98 million, and months of supply climbed to 4.9 from 4.6. The macro backdrop is mixed: mortgage rates at 6.73% and the 10-year Treasury at 4.88% are well above year-ago levels, though the yield curve has un-inverted (+0.87) and consumer sentiment ticked up to 55.2.
Data trust
No divergence flags were raised — sources are broadly consistent. Anchor appreciation on the tier-1 FHFA index and tier-2 Zillow ZHVI (both weighted/repeat-sales measures); NAR's median sale price is a raw median (tier 3) sensitive to sales mix, which helps explain the -1.7% monthly swing without contradicting the steadier ZHVI/FHFA readings.
Local news
Coverage in the provided headlines reinforces the mixed picture: Scripps News noted the market may be shifting in buyers' favor despite rising rates, while ABC News and NBC News highlighted affordability strain as mortgage rates approach 7%. Finance & Commerce reported expectations that U.S. mortgage rates stay above 6.5% through 2027, and Yahoo Finance tied the near-term rate path to Fed policy — all consistent with the model's flat-to-softer price outlook.
Informational only, not financial advice. No forecast here is certain or guaranteed; every prediction is shown with its interval and confidence.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Forecasts always carry an interval and a confidence score.