United States housing dashboard

An honest, interval-based read on the U.S. housing market — every forecast shows its range and confidence, backed by a public track record of past accuracy. Start with the national picture below, then drill into a state or open the full interactive map.

Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.

State home-value forecast (predicted)

observed as of 2026-04-30

Each state is shaded by its predicted next-12-month change in home value (the AI forecast, Zillow ZHVI basis) — green is rising, red is falling, gray means no forecast yet. Hover a state to see the predicted figure with its confidence alongside the observed trailing-12-month trend. No forecast is certain; each is shown with its confidence. Click a state to open its full outlook.

CTDEDCMDMANHNJRIVT
Hover a state
Predicted 12-mo home value:falling → risingno forecastHover for predicted (with confidence) + observed.

The current market assessment is:

Zillow home value is projected near $370,721 over 12 months (80% interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), roughly flat versus today's $368,198, with the model turning softer at 24–36 months.

An automated analyst read on the U.S. housing market — informational only, not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Read the full analyst note ↓

For sellers

  • Months of supply sits at 4.6 (NAR, tier 3), up 2.2% month-over-month — the market is drifting toward balance, so pricing power is easing.
  • Existing home sales fell 2.4% to 4.09 million (NAR, tier 3), signaling thinner demand at current price points.
  • The 12-month home value forecast is essentially flat ($370,721 vs $368,198 today; interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), so waiting for meaningful appreciation looks unlikely at the national level.

Takeaway: pricing power is fading — realistic list prices and readiness to negotiate matter more than in prior years.

For buyers

  • The 30-year mortgage rate is 6.46% (FRED, tier 1), modestly below 6.59% a year ago — small but real affordability relief.
  • Supply at 4.6 months is the loosest reading in this dataset, giving buyers more selection and negotiating room than during the tighter years.
  • The forecast is roughly flat over 12 months and turns negative at 24–36 months (h=24 point $358,002, appreciation -2.8%; h=36 point $312,654, appreciation -15.1%, confidence 0.45), so the urgency to buy immediately is limited — though the wide bands leave real two-sided risk.

Takeaway: buyer leverage is the best it has been in years, but longer-horizon forecasts are noisy and macro-dependent.

Market Pulse

Where United States is headed — a considered read from now out to 3 years, on a −100 (weakening) to +100 (strengthening) scale. A considered read, not a guarantee.

as of Jul 23, 2026
near term+100+500−50−100strengtheningweakening−8Now72% conf.−612 mo68% conf.−1824 mo54% conf.−3236 mo43% conf.

Now

−8

on −100 to +100

Cooling toward balance

72% confidence

Supply is loosening (4.6 months, up), existing sales are down 2.4%, and the 12-month home-value forecast is essentially flat — a market cooling toward balance rather than crashing. The model turns progressively softer at 24 and 36 months (-2.8% and -15.1% appreciation vs today), which pulls the forward scores lower. Uncertainty grows with horizon: the 36-month band is very wide and confidence is only 0.45, so that read is a softer, directional signal rather than a firm call.

  • 012mo price forecastFlat at $370,721 vs $368,198 today
  • −24-36mo price forecastPoints to -2.8% then -15.1% appreciation, low confidence
  • −Months of supply4.6 and rising = loosening
  • −Existing sales4.09M, down 2.4% MoM
  • +Mortgage rate6.46%, modestly below year-ago 6.59%
  • +FHFA index+0.7% latest reading (tier 1)
  • −Consumer sentiment44.8, down from 58.2 a year ago
  • 0Data trustNAR median appreciation runs ~7.7pt below FHFA historically
Our formula reads: +16· AI's considered score now: −8

The AI weighs everything; the formula is the cross-check. How this is calculated.

This is a considered read, not a guarantee. The score is plotted now and at 12, 24 and 36 months; confidence falls and the 36-month read is faded because uncertainty grows with the horizon. How this is calculated.

Price Trajectory

Home-value appreciation for United States — recent observed history, then the forecast out to +1 and +3 years. A projection, not a guarantee.

as of Apr 2026
+25%+12.5%0%-12.5%-25%now+1yr+0.7%70% conf.+3yr-15.1%45% conf. · lower confidenceMay 24May 25
Observed — rising (YoY +)Observed — falling (YoY −)Forecast| 0% baseline · vertical line = now (observed | forecast)

+1yr forecast+0.7%

80% range: -1.7% to +3.1%

Confidence 70% · moderate confidence

+3yr forecast-15.1%

80% range: -22.0% to -7.5%

Confidence 45% · lower confidence — projects further out, so treat with extra caution

Observed bars are the trailing-12-month change in home value (green = rising, red = falling). The orange line is a forecast, not a guarantee — each point shows its confidence, and the +3yr projection is faded with a wider band because it is less certain than the +1yr. Every forecast carries an interval and confidence. How this is calculated.

The data behind this assessment

The map above shades each state by its predicted next-12-month home-value change (hover for the observed trailing trend and the forecast's confidence). The analyses below — the national outlook, key indicators, track record, and data-trust checks — are what feed the assessment. The forward-looking forecasts always carry an interval and confidence.

National outlook

U.S. home-value forecast over the next 12 months — always shown with its range and confidence.

United States · 12-mo home value

$370,721

projected 12-month outlook

▲ rising

Low $362,023High $379,628
80% range
$362,023 – $379,628
Confidence
70% (moderate confidence)

Track record

Real out-of-sample accuracy from our published backtests — misses included.

Avg. error (MAPE)
3.4%
lower is better
Interval coverage
0.96
target ≈ 0.80 for an 80% band
Across 27 backtested metric/horizon combinations (6,192 evaluations).
See the full backtest →

Data trust

How much we trust each source. Each source is measured against recorded sales (FHFA, our Tier-1 anchor). We weight recorded transactions higher and flag any source that diverges.

  • FHFA House Price IndexTier 1 · recorded
    ✓

    Tier 1 — recorded repeat-sales; our ground-truth anchor.

    Ensemble weight 1.00

  • County Recorder (recorded deeds)Tier 1 · recorded
    ✓

    Tier 1 — recorded county deeds; treated as ground truth alongside FHFA. Near-perfect agreement with the anchor (bias 0.0pt).

    Ensemble weight 1.00

  • Zillow ResearchTier 2 · modeled
    ✓

    Tracks the recorded index closely (bias −0.2pt) — trusted.

    Ensemble weight 57.23

  • Redfin Data CenterTier 2 · modeled
    ⚠

    Runs ~8% hot vs recorded sales at city/neighborhood level — flagged & down-weighted.

    Ensemble weight 0.18

  • National Assoc. of RealtorsTier 3 · listing / industry
    ⚠

    Runs ~773% soft vs recorded sales at nation level — flagged & down-weighted.

    Ensemble weight 7.12

Flagged divergences

  • nar · median sale price appreciation vs fhfa (nation)bias -772.9% n=3
  • redfin · Median sale price (city)bias +8.4% n=156
  • redfin · Median sale price (neighborhood)bias +6.1% n=64

Verdicts are derived from measured bias versus the FHFA recorded repeat-sales index. This is a data-quality signal, not investment advice; all forecasts carry an interval and stated confidence.

Explore the map

A national choropleth shaded by predicted appreciation. Zoom from the nation to states and counties.

Prefer a spatial view? The full interactive map lets you hover any area for its range and confidence, and click through to states and counties. Areas not yet generated show in neutral gray.

Open the interactive map →

Jump into a state

Open a state's outlook, indicators, and counties.

Looking for another state? Open the map and click any state. Most states aren't generated yet — opening one shows current indicators and lets members generate a forecast.

Current market indicators

Observed current data for the United States (plus macro rates) that feed the assessment above — distinct from the forecasts, which carry intervals and confidence.

Analyst note

daily · 7/23/2026

Zillow home value is projected near $370,721 over 12 months (80% interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), roughly flat versus today's $368,198, with the model turning softer at 24–36 months.

For sellers

  • Months of supply sits at 4.6 (NAR, tier 3), up 2.2% month-over-month — the market is drifting toward balance, so pricing power is easing.
  • Existing home sales fell 2.4% to 4.09 million (NAR, tier 3), signaling thinner demand at current price points.
  • The 12-month home value forecast is essentially flat ($370,721 vs $368,198 today; interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), so waiting for meaningful appreciation looks unlikely at the national level.

Takeaway: pricing power is fading — realistic list prices and readiness to negotiate matter more than in prior years.

For buyers

  • The 30-year mortgage rate is 6.46% (FRED, tier 1), modestly below 6.59% a year ago — small but real affordability relief.
  • Supply at 4.6 months is the loosest reading in this dataset, giving buyers more selection and negotiating room than during the tighter years.
  • The forecast is roughly flat over 12 months and turns negative at 24–36 months (h=24 point $358,002, appreciation -2.8%; h=36 point $312,654, appreciation -15.1%, confidence 0.45), so the urgency to buy immediately is limited — though the wide bands leave real two-sided risk.

Takeaway: buyer leverage is the best it has been in years, but longer-horizon forecasts are noisy and macro-dependent.

Outlook

The model projects Zillow home value near $370,721 in 12 months (80% interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70) — essentially flat versus the current $368,198. Further out, the point estimate softens to $358,002 at 24 months (interval $334,669–$382,962, confidence 0.56) and $312,654 at 36 months (interval $287,084–$340,501, confidence 0.45). Confidence decays materially with horizon; the 36-month band is wide and should be read as directional, not precise. Rent is expected to drift up to about $1,989 in 12 months (interval $1,950–$2,028, confidence 0.71).

Recent trend

The FHFA home price index (tier 1, the cleanest appreciation signal) rose 0.7% to 713.09 in January 2026. Zillow's ZHVI (tier 2) is $368,198, essentially unchanged month-over-month. NAR's median sale price (tier 3) jumped 2.2% to $440,600, but that raw median is sales-mix-sensitive — anchor appreciation reads on FHFA and ZHVI. Months of supply rose to 4.6 and existing sales fell 2.4%, both indicating a softening pace.

Data trust

One divergence is flagged: NAR's median sale price appreciation runs on average about 7.7 points below FHFA's repeat-sales measure historically (mae 14.0, n=3) — treat NAR's headline median moves as noisy relative to FHFA. Zillow ZHVI tracks FHFA closely (bias -0.10, mae 1.36, n=101), so its home-value read is broadly consistent with recorded reality. For appreciation, trust FHFA (tier 1); for level, ZHVI (tier 2) is the better single number than NAR's raw median (tier 3).

Local news

Several outlets echo the softening picture: The Real Deal reported the South posted the largest mortgage-rate drop "amid a cooling housing market," while thestreet.com highlighted Redfin data showing the market "is changing fast." The Tennessean and mpamag.com both noted affordability has improved to a 2026 high despite record prices, and Yahoo Finance flagged 10 metros where builders are cutting new-home prices — consistent with the loosening supply and flat-to-soft forecast in the data.

Informational only, not financial advice. No forecast here is certain or guaranteed; every prediction is shown with its interval and confidence.

Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Forecasts always carry an interval and a confidence score.